You are here

GENİŞLETİCİ MALİ DARALMA HİPOTEZİNİN TEMELLERİ VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

THE BASES OF EXPANSIONARY FISCAL CONTRACTION HYPOTHESIS AND AN APPLICATION ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
An important issue in the design of fiscal policy is the relationship between government and private consumption. Expansionary Fiscal Contraction hypothesis suggests that fiscal contractions can be expansionary because of their effects on expectations of future disposable income and future fiscal policy. In this paper, hypothesis in question is tested for Turkey using quarterly data from 1987 to 2009 with ARDL approach. Empirical findings indicate that government consumption expenditures have the expected Keynesian effects on private consumption in both short and long term.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Maliye politikasının dizaynında önemli bir sorun kamu ve özel tüketim arasındaki ilişkidir. Genişletici mali daralma hipotezi, mali daralmanın gelecekteki harcanabilir gelir ve maliye politikası konusundaki beklentiler üzerindeki etkisi nedeniyle genişletici sonuçlar doğurabileceğini öne sürmektedir. Bu çalışmada söz konusu hipotez Türkiye için 1987-2009 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak ARDL yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular kamu tüketim harcamalarının hem kısa hem uzun dönemde özel tüketim üzerinde beklenen Keynesyen etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.
233-253

REFERENCES

References: 

AFONSO Antonio; (2006), “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations In Europe
New Evidence”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series
No. 675, ss. 1-51
ALESINA, Alberto ve Roberto PEROTTI; (1997). “Fiscal Adjustments in
OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,” International
Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 44(2), ss. 210-248.
BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON; (1998), “Estimating And Testing Linear Models
With Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66, ss. 47-78.
BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON; (2003), “Computation And Analysis Of Multiple
Structural Change Models”, Journal Of Applied Econometrics,
18, ss. 1-22.
BARRY, Frank ve Michael B. DEVEREUX; (1995), “The Expansionary Fiscal
Contraction Hypothesis: A Neo-Keynesian Analysis”, Oxford Economic
Papers, 47, ss. 249-264.
BERGMAN, U. Michael ve Michael M. HUTCHISON; (2010), “Expansionary
Fiscal Contractions: Re-evaluating the Danish Case”, International
Economic Journal, 24(1), ss. 71 – 93.
BERTOLA, Giuseppe ve Allan DRAZEN; (1993), “Trigger Points and Budget
Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity”, The American
Economic Review, 83(1), ss. 11-26.
BERUMENT Hakan ve Burak DOĞAN; (2004), “the Asymetric Effects of
Government Spending Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Turkey”,
Journal of Economic and Social Research, 6(1), ss. 33-51.
BLANCHARD, Olivier; (1985), “Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons”, The
Journal of Political Economy, 93(2), ss. 223-247.
BLANCHARD, Olivier; (1990), “Comment, on Giavazzi and Pagano (1990)”,
in Blanchard, O. ve Fischer, S. (edt.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual
1990, ss. 111-116.
CONSIDINE John ve David DUFFY; (2007), Tales of Expansionary Fiscal
Contractions in Two European Countries: Hindsight and Foresight,
National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics,
Working Papers No: 120, ss. 1-33.
DICKEY, David A. ve Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), "Likelihood Ratio Statistics
for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root." Econometrica,
49, ss. 1057-1072.ENGLE, Robert F. ve C.V.J. GRANGER; (1987), “Cointegration and Error
Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica,
55, ss.251-276.
ERDOĞAN, Levent; (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”,
Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), ss.
117-132.
ERGÜN, Mine; (2005). Sürdürülebilir Maliye Politikası ve Maliye Politikasının
Ekonomik Aktivite Üzerine Etkileri: AB Uyum Sürecindeki Türkiye
Örneği ve AB Ülkeleri Deneyimleri, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı
Uzmanlık Tezleri Yayın No: 2684, 124s.
FELDSTEIN, Martin; (1982), "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand."
Journal of Monetary Economics, 9(1), ss. 1-20.
GIAVAZZI, Francesco ve Marco PAGANO; (1990), “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions
be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries,”
içinde Blanchard, O. ve Fischer, S. (edt.), NBER Macroeconomics
Annual 1990, MIT Press, ss.75-122.
GIAVAZZI, Francesco; Tullio JAPPELLI ve Marco PAGANO; (2000).
“Searching For Non-Linear Effects Of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From
Industrial And Developing Countries,” European Economic Review,
44(7), ss. 1259-1289.
HELLWIG, Martin ve Manfred J. M. NEUMANN; (1987), “Economic Policy
in Germany: Was There a Turnaround?”, Economi Policy, 2(5), ss.
103-145.
HJELM, Göran; (2002), “Is Private Consumption Growth Higher (Lower) during
Periods Of Fiscal Contractions(Expansions)?”, Journal of Macroeconomics,
24, ss. 17–39.
HOGAN, Vincent; (2004), “Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from
Panel Data”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 106(4), ss. 647-
659.
JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors”,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2/3), ss. 231-254.
JOHANSEN, Soren ve Katarina JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood
Estimation And Inference On Cointegration - With Applications To
The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
52(2), ss.169-210.
KIGUEL, Miguel A. ve Nissan LIVIATAN; (1992), "The Business Cycle Associated
with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations", The World Bank
Economic Review, 6(2), ss. 279-305.KWAN Yum K.; (2007), “The Direct Substitution Between Government and
Private Consumption in East Asia”, in Fiscal Policy and Management
in East Asia, NBER-EASE Book, Ito T. ve Andrew K. Rose
(edt), 16, ss. 45-58.
LEE Junsoo ve Mark C. STRAZICICH; (2001), “Break Point Estimation And
Spurious Rejections With Endogenous Unit Root Tests”, Oxford Bulletin
of Economics and Statistics, 63, ss. 535–558.
LINNEMANN, Ludger ve Andreas SCHABERT; (2004), “Can Fiscal Spending
Stimulate Private Consumption?", Economics Letters, 82, ss. 173-
179.
MACKINNON, James G.; (1996), "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit
Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics,
11(6), ss. 601-18.
NARAYAN, Paresh K.; (2005), “The Saving And Investment Nexus For China:
Evidence From Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37(17), ss.
1979-1990.
ÖZBEK, Levent ve Oya S. ERDOĞDU; (2005), “Türkiye''de Tüketim Eğilimi
Ve Maliye Politikası”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 235, ss. 29-35.
PEROTTI, Roberto; (1999). “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad”, Quarterly
Journal of Economics. 114(4), ss. 1399-1436.
PERRON, Pierre; (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit
Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), ss. 1361-1401.
PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. SMITH; (2001),
“Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships”,
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Special Issue, 16, ss. 289-
326.
REBELO, Sergio ve Carlos A. VEGH; (1995), "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate
Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories", NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 10, ss. 125- 174.
ROMER, David; (2001), Advanced Macroeconomics, Second Edition,
McGraw-Hill Press, New York, 651s.
STOCK, James H. ve Mark W. WATSON; (1988). “Testing For Common
Trends”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83,
ss.1097-1107.
SUTHERLAND, Alan; (1997), “Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can
High Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?”, Journal of Public
Economics, 65(2), ss. 147-162.TAGKALAKIS, Athanasios; (2008). “The Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Policy
on Consumption in Recessions and Expansions”, Journal of Public
Economics, 92, ss. 1486–1508.
VAN AARLE, Bas ve Harry GARRETSEN; (2003), “Keynesian, non-
Keynesian or no Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes? The EMU Case”,
Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(2), ss. 213-240.
ZIVOT Eric ve Donald W. K. ANDREWS; (1992), “Further Evidence on The
Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”,
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, ss. 251-270.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com