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Isparta İçin Aylık Ortalama Günlük Global Güneş Radyasyonu Tahmininde Mevcut Olan Bazı Modellerin Karşılaştırılması

Comparison of Some Existing Models for Estimating Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation for Isparta

Journal Name:

  • Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2012

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The amount of global solar radiation and its temporal distribution are the primary variables for designing solar energy systems, such as flat-plate collectors, photovoltaic systems and other solar energy collecting devices. Knowledge of these parameters is essential to architects and engineers for energy-efficient building designs and solar energy applications. However, direct measuring is not available in many cases, so numerical technique becomes an effective alternative to estimate global radiation through observed meteorological data. In this study, some empirical models in the literature for determining the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Isparta were investigated. The models were compared on the basis of statistical error tests using the relative percentage error (e), coefficient of determination (R2), mean percentage error (MPE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the sum of the square of relative error (SSRE), the relative standard error (RSE), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and t-statistic (t-stat) method. According to the results, Model 18c showed the best estimation of the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface of Isparta by means of the e (1.77%), R2(95.86%), MPE (0.127%), MAPE (8.95%), SSRE (5.22%), RSE (0.007%), MBE (0.092%), RMSE (1.39%) and t-stat (0.812%). The most suitable model for estimating global solar radiation coming on horizontal surface of Isparta is obtained with Model 18c.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Global güneş radyasyonunun miktarı ve zamansal dağılımı düzlemsel kollektörler, fotovoltaik sistemler ve diğer güneş enerjisi toplayıcıları gibi güneş enerjisi sistemlerinin tasarımı için birincil etkendir. Enerji-verimli binaların tasarımları ve güneş enerjisi uygulamaları için mimarlar ve mühendisler tarafından bu parametrelerin bilinmesi gereklidir. Ancak birçok durumda, doğrudan ölçüm mevcut değildir. Bu nedenle global radyasyonu tahmin etmek için ölçülen bazı meteorolojik verileri kullanan nümeriksel hesaplamalar etkili bir alternatif yoldur. Bu çalışmada, Isparta’da yatay düzleme gelen aylık ortalama günlük global güneş radyasyonun belirlenmesi için literatürde bulunan bazı modeller incelenmiştir. İncelemesi yapılan modeller bağıl hata yüzdesi (e), belirlilik katsayısı (R2), ortalama yüzde hata (MPE), ortalama mutlak hata yüzdesi (MAPE), bağıl hata karesi (SSRE), bağıl standart toplam hata (RSE), ortalama sapma hatası (MBE), karekök hatası (RMSE) ve t-istatistik (t-stat) kullanan istatistiksel hata testlerine bağlı olarak karşılaştırılmıştır. İstatistiksel hata testlerin sonucuna göre, e (%1.77), R2 (%95.86), MPE (%0.127), MAPE (%8.95), SSRE (%5.22), RSE (%0.007), MBE (%0.092), RMSE (%1.39) ve t-stat (%0.812), Isparta’nın yatay düzlemi gelen global güneş radyasyonunun tahmin edilmesinde en iyi yaklaşım Model 18c ile elde edilmektedir.
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