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Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminde Öğrenme Süreci ve Asimetri: Markov Switching Yaklaşımı

Learning Process and Asymmetry In Inflation Targeting Regime: Markov Switching Approach

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Abstract (2. Language): 
The Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) practiced implicit inflation targeting strategy between years 2002 and 2005. The CBRT has started to practice explicit inflation targeting by the beginning of 2006.In this context, the bank announces the inflation target for each year and identifies the disinflation path followed by the CBRT. In this study, we analyze the behavior of the CBRT between years 2002 and 2011 in the context of King’s (1997) model which includes forward looking expectations into monetary policy reaction functions. We employ Markov Switching Vector Autoregregression (MS‐VAR) approach in order to investigate whether the CBRT has asymmetric behaviors. Results imply that the CBRT plays active or inactive role in the economy due to economic conditions. So, besides inflation targeting strategy, the bank practices monetary policy which supports the economic growth.
Abstract (Original Language): 
TCMB 2002 2005 yılları arasında örtük enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisi uygulamıştır. 2006 yılının başlangıcından itibaren açık enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisini uygulamaya başlamıştır. Bu kapsamda yıllar itibariyle enflasyon hedefleri açıklanarak, hedefleme stratejisinde takip edilecek dezenflasyon süreci belirlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada TCMB’nin 2002‐2011 yılları arasındaki davranışları King (1996) tarafından oluşturulan model çerçevesinde bireylerin ileriye yönelik beklentilerinin dahil edildiği para politikası reaksiyon fonksiyonu oluşturulmak suretiyle, Markov rejim değişim (MS‐VAR) modeli kullanılarak TCMB’nin bu dönem içerisindeki asimetrik davranışlarının varlığı test edilmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları göstermektedir ki, Türkiye ekonomisinin hızlı bir şekilde büyüdüğü bu dönemde TCMB asimetrik bir tutum ile genişleme ve daralma dönemlerinde politika araçlarını farklı dozajlarda kullanarak aktif ya da pasif bir tavır takınmıştır. Böylece banka daralma rejiminde enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin yanında ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyen bir politika uygulamıştır.
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