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Türkiyede Toplam Ekonomik Aktivite ve İşsizlik Dinamikleri

Economic Activity and Unemployment Dynamics in Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Stylized Business Cycle facts show that employment is highly procyclical and unemployment is highly countercyclical with the aggregate economic activity. Also, Okun’s law indicates a negative relationship with between economic growth and unemployment rate. This paper’s goal is to find out what causes high unemployment and what is the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Turkey. It aims to show not only the relationship between cyclical output and unemployment, but also how the changes in GDP gap affect the unemployment. Further, it analyzes whether the relationship between GDP gap and Unemployment is symmetric. The results of the Granger causality test indicate that there is a unidirectional causality from GDP gap to Unemployment. Also, impulse response and Variance decompositions show that following the crises, although there is a strong and quick recovery in economic activity, but same recovery is not seen in employment and in the reduction of unemployment rate. This can be seen as a typical indication of “jobless growth” phenomena. The paper also discusses the micro and macro policy measures for reducing unemployment.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Konjonktürel dalgalanma gerçekleri ve Okun kuralı işsizliğin toplam ekonomik aktivite ile ters yönlü hareket ettiğini ortaya koyar. Bu makalenin amacı Türkiyede son zamanlarda ortaya çıkan yüksek işsizliğin nedenini ve ekonomik aktivite ile nasıl bir ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktır. Bunu yaparkende sadece bu ilişkiyi araştırmayıp, toplam çıktı açığındaki değişmelerin (GDP Gap) işsizliği ve oranını nasıl etkilediğini ve ilişkinin simetrik olup olmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Granger nedensellik testleri ilişkinin tek yönlü v eve toplam çıktı açığından işsizliğe doğru olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Impulse response ve Variance decompositions uygulamaları da Granger nedensellik testi ile elde edilen sonuçları desteklemektedir. Çalışma sonuç olarak isşizliğin azaltılması için mikro ve makro çözüm önerileri sunmaktadır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 2
173-185
  • English

REFERENCES

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