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Para İkamesi Histerisi: Türkiye Örneği

Currency Substitution Hysterisis: The Case of Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2008

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The main issue in this paper is to analyze the determinants and the hysteresis in currency substitution process in which foreign money replaces the domestic one. With this issue, the currency substitution process has been analyzed respect to the composite index. Factors affecting currency substitution have been explained with an empirical model composing of 1992:01- 2007:12. Inflation, real exchange rates have been determined as the main factors. According to the empirical model in fact hysteresis has a statistical significant; it is conflicting with our theoretical explanations. With respect to these findings, in order to reverse currency substitution process; stability should be sustained and extended to all sectors of the economy and the inflation should be reduced.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmanın temel amacı; yabancı paranın yerli paranın yerini aldığı bir süreç olan para ikamesinin temel belirleyicilerinin araştırılması ve bu süreçte para ikamesi histerisinin ölçülmesidir. Bu amaçla öncelikle Türkiye’de yaşanan para ikamesinin seyri bileşik bir endekse dayandırılarak ortaya konmuştur. Para ikamesini etkileyen faktörler 1992:01–2007:12 dönemini kapsayan ampirik model ile açıklanmış, en önemli belirleyicileri enflasyon ve reel döviz kuru olarak bulunmuştur. Türkiye’de para ikamesi histerisi ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir sonuç verse de, teorik beklentilerimizi karşılamaktan uzaktır. Bu bulgular ışığında Türkiye’de para ikamesi sürecinin azaltılabilmesi için istikrarın ekonominin tümüne yayılması ve enflasyonla mücadelenin sürdürülmesi gerekmektedir.
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  • Turkish

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