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Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Opec ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Zaman Serisi Analizi

The Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Analysis for the Opec and Oil-Imported Countries

Journal Name:

  • Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2013

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The relationship between oil prices and economic growth is the subject of many studies because oil price creates long-term macroeconomic impacts for the World economies. In this paper, therefore, the relationship between oil prices and economic growth is investigated by using time series analysis over the period of 1980–2011 for the OPEC and oil-imported countries. The results of time series analysis show that a rise in oil price creates a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth for some oil-imported countries and a negative statistically significant effect on economic growth in Kiribati; besides, this positive relation arises only for the UAE that is a member of the OPEC. In addition, it is observed for some countries that both cointegration and causal relationships occur between the mentioned variables.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Dünya ekonomileri için yarattığı uzun dönemli makroekonomik etkiler nedeniyle petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler çok sayıda araştırmaya konu olmuştur. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler 1980–2011 döneminde OPEC ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için zaman serisi analizleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Zaman serisi analizleri, bazı petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki bakımdan anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ve Kiribati’de ise negatif ve anlamlı etkiler ortaya çıkardığını göstermiş, ayrıca pozitif yönlü ilişkinin OPEC üyesi olan sadece BAE’de ortaya çıktığını yansıtmıştır. İlaveten, bazı ülkeler için ifade edilen değişkenler arasında hem eşbütünleşik ve hem de nedensel ilişkilerin varlığı da ortaya konmuştur.
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Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler
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