You are here

Home » Content

POLICY ISSUES AND THE 2001 CRISIS

Journal Name:

  • Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2006

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This article takes up the subject of policy prescriptions and offers a particular policy implication for Turkey’s latest currency crisis. After the outbreak of the East Asian crises, the IMF initially implemented a set of macroeconomic policies so as to reestablish financial market confidence in those countries. A number of prominent economists heavily criticized the IMF’s macroeconomic programs and argued that its contractionary programs exacerbated the turmoil in the markets rather than actually improving it. The IMF’s view and the views of its critics are briefly introduced in the initial section. Their relevance and usefulness for Turkey are then assessed on the basis of the circumstances in the country. After these assessments, it is concluded that neither the IMF view nor the views of its critics perfectly suits Turkey and a combination of both views (a contractionary fiscal and an expansionary monetary policy) provides the best policy mix for reestablishing market confidence.
Bookmark/Search this post with
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu makale alternatif politika seçeneklerini tartışmakta ve Türkiye’nin en son döviz krizine en uygun olan bir politika seçeneği sunmaktadır. Uzakdoğu krizlerinin çıkmasından sonra, IMF bu ülkelerde yeniden mali güveni tesis etmek için bir dizi makro-iktisat politikaları uyguladı. Bazı önemli iktisatçılar IMF’nin bu politikalarını ağır bir biçimde eleştirdiler ve IMF’nin daraltıcı poltiklarının krizi gidermek yerine daha da ağırlaştırdığını iddia ettiler. IMF ve karşıtlarının politika önerileri ilk bölümde özetlenmektedir. Daha sonra Türkiye’nin kendi koşullarında IMF ve karşıtlarının politika önerilerinin Türkiye’ye uygulanabilirliği tartışılmakta; netice olarak ne IMF ne de karşıtlarının politika önerilerinin tam olarak uygun olmadığı kanaatine varılmaktadır. Her iki görüşün bir kombinasyonu olan daraltıcı maliye ve genişletici para politikalarının birlikte uygulanmasının ideal olduğu ileri sürülmektedir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
PDF icon arastirmax-policy-issues-and-2001-crisis.pdf
  • 4
63-77
  • English

REFERENCES

References: 

Agenor, P., J. Bhandari and R. Flood (1994), “Macroeconomic Policy, Speculative
Attacks, and Balance of Payments Crises”, The Handbook of International
Macroeconomics, (Ed. F. Van Der Ploeg)
Akcay, O.C., Alper, C. and Ozmucur, S. (2001) “Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt
Sustainability: Evidence From Turkey (1970-2000)”, Bogazici University, Istanbul.
Ball, L. and G.A. Mankiw (1995), “What do Budget Deficits do?”, NBER Working
Paper, No. 5263, New York.
Blanco, H. and P.M. Garber (1986), “Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks
on the Mexican Peso”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94, No.1, pp.
149-166.
Bordo, D. M. and J.A. Schwartz (1996), “Why Clashes between Internal and External
Stability Goals end in Currency Crises, 1797-1994”, NBER Working Paper
No. 5710, New York.
Buiter, W. H. (1987), “Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing of
and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks”, Journal of International Economics,
Vol. 23, pp. 221-39.
Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, S. Rebelo (2001), “Prospective Deficits and Asian
Currency Crisis”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 109, No.6, pp. 1155-
1197.
Calvo, G. (1996), “Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons”,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.1, pp. 207-24.
_________ (1996), “Varieties of Capital Market Crises”,
http://www.bsos.umd.edu/econ/cie crp3.pdf (last entrance: 12.12.2006)
Chang, R., and A. Velasco (1998), “The Asian Liquidity Crisis”, NBER Working
Paper No. 6796, New York.
Cole, H. and T. Kehoe (1996), “A Self-Fulfilling Model of Mexico’s 1994-1995
Debt Crisis”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, pp. 309-30.
_________ (1998), “Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,
No.211.
Dornbusch, R. (2001), “A Premier on Emerging Market Crises”, NBER Working
Paper, No. 8326, New York.
Eichengreen, B., K.A. Rose, and C., Wyplosz, (1995), “Exchange Market Mayhem
the Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks”, Economic Policy,
Vol.10, No. 21, pp. 249-312.
_________ (1998), “Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests”, Scandinavian Journal
of Economics, Vol. 98, No. 4, pp. 463-484.Eichengreen, B. and A. Rose (1998/9), “The Empirics of Currency and Banking
Crises”, NBER Reporter, New York.
Fischer, S. (1998a), “The Asian Crisis: A View from the IMF,” January.
http://www.imf.org/ external/np/speeches/1998/012298.htm (Last Entrance:
12.12.2006).
_________ (1998b), “The IMF and the Asian Crisis,” http://www.imf.org/external/
np/speeches/1998/032098.htm (Last Entrance: 12.12.2006).
Flood, R. and P. Garber (1984), “Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes. Some Linear
Examples”, Journal of International Economics, Vol.17, pp. 1-13,
Flood, R.P., P. Garber, and C. Kramer (1996), “Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes:
Another Linear Example”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, pp.
223-34.
Flood, R. and P.N. Marion (1998), “Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis
Literature”, IMF Working Paper, Washington.
_________ (2000), “Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions: An Application to Speculative
Attacks”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 50, pp. 245-68.
Frankel, J. and A. Rose (1995), “Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates”,
Handbook of International Economics, Vol.3, pp. 1689-1729.
_________ (1996), “Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment”,
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, pp. 351-366.
Furman, Jason and J.E. Stiglitz (1998), “Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights
from East Asia”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, No.2, p.1-114
Goldberg, S. L. (1994), “Predicting Exchange Rate Crisis; Mexico Revisited”, Journal
of International Economics, Vol. 36, pp. 413-430.
Kaminsky, L. G. and C. Reinhart (1999), “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking
and Balance of Payments Problems”, American Economic Review,Vol. 89,
No.3, pp. 473-500.
_________ (1998), “Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now”,
AEA Papers and Proceedings, pp. 444-448.
Kaminsky, L.G., S. Lizando, and C. Reinhart (1998), “Leading Indicators of Currency
Crises”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp.1-48.
Krugman, Paul (1979), “Model of Balance of Payments Crises”, Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking, Vol.11, pp.311-325.
_________ (1996), “Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?”, NBER Macroeconomics
Annual, Vol.11, New York.
_________ (1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”,
Mimeo, M.I.T.
_________ (1999), “Analytical Afterthoughts on the Asian Crisis”, MIT, Boston.Mishkin, S. F. (1996), “Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country
Perspective”, NBER Working Paper, No 5600, New York.
Obstfeld, M. (1984), “Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation”, Journal of
Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 208-217.
_________ (1997), “Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and
Policy”, NBER Working Paper, No: 6319, New York.
_________ (1998), “The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?”, Journal
of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp.9-30.
Otker, Inci and C. Pazarbasioglu (1995), “Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises:
The Mexican Experience”, IMF Working Paper, No: 95/112, pp. 24-44.
Radelet, S., and J. Sachs (1998), “The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis,
Remedies, Prospects”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No.1, pp.1-74.
_________ (2000), “The Onset of the East Asian Crisis,” Currency Crises, (Ed. Paul
Krugman), the University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Rodrik, D. and A. Velasco (1999), “Short-Term Capital Flows”, NBER Working
Papers, No. 7364, New York.
Sachs, J., A. Tornell, and A. Velasco (1996), “The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden
Death or Death Foretold?”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, pp.
265-83.
_________ (1996), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from
1995”, NBER Working Paper, No.5576, New York.
_________ (1997), “Alternative Approaches to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets”,
Development Discussion Paper, No.568, Harvard University.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com