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TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE PARA İKAMESİ - ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİNİN ZAMANA BAĞLI DEĞİŞEN YAPISI

INVESTIGATING THE TIME: THE VARYING NATURE OF THE LINK BETWEEN INFLATION AND CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Journal Name:

  • Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2013
DOI: 
doi: 10.5505/pausbed.2013.88598

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This study investigates the relationship between the rate of inflation and the degree of the currency substitution for Turkey during 1986-2006. Our results show that the correlation coefficient between the two variables has not been constant over time. The results of the Multivariate GARCH model estimated to obtain the correlation coefficients indicate that there is a nonlinear relationship between the inflation rate and the degree of currency substitution. The main policy implication of our study is that it is difficult to stop or to reverse the currency substitution unless a confidence in the domestic currency is established.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, enflasyon oranı-para ikamesi ilişkisi 1986-2006 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi için araştırılmaktadır. Sonuçlarımız iki değişken arasındaki korelasyon katsayısının zaman içinde sabit olmadığını göstermektedir. Korelasyon katsayılarını tahmin etmek için kullanılan Çok Değişkenli GARCH (MGARCH) modeli sonuçları enflasyon oranı ile para ikamesi derecesi arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Çalışmamızın İktisat politikaları açısından yarattığı en önemli sonuç, yerli paraya karşı güven sağlanmadığı sürece para ikamesini durdurmanın veya geriye döndürmenin mümkün olmayacağı şeklindedir.
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