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Türkiye'de Kamu Harcamaları ve Gelirleri: Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Public Expenditures and Revenues in Turkey: An Investigation on Causality

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper investigates the evidence for cointegration and causality between government revenue and expenditure for Turkey over the period 1987:01‐2005:04. The results from error‐correction model and Toda‐ Yamamoto method suggest that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in either direction. This finding supports the idea that either reducing expenditures or raising taxes can decrease the budget deficit in Turkey.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Hata düzeltme modeli ve Toda‐Yamamoto yöntemleri kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, 1987:1 ve 2005:04 arasındaki dönemde kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olmasına rağmen, nedensellik olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç, kamu harcamaların kısılması ve/veya vergilerin artırılmasının bütçe açıklarını azaltmada etkili olabileceğini ifade etmektedir.
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