You are here

Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru ile İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1990 – 2006

The Causal Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate and Export and Import in Turkey:1990-2006

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Keywords (Original Language):

Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, we investigate the interactions between the real exchange rates and export and import applying bivariate Granger causality test in Turkey. To determine the appropriate Granger causality relations, unit root and cointegtration models are used. With time-series techniques, it is found that there is a cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rates and export and import. On the other hand, our results indicate that there is a unidrectional causality from export and import to the real exchange rates
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalısmada, Türkiye’de reel döviz kurları ile ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki etkilesim Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak arastırılmıstır.Granger nedensellik iliskisini belirlemeden önce, birim kök ve esbütünlesme analizi yapılmıstır. Zaman serisi teknikleri kullanılarak elde edilen bulgulara göre, reel döviz kurları ile ihracat ve ithalat arasında esbütünlesme iliskinin varlığı görülmüstür. Diğer taraftan, reel döviz kuru ile ihracat ve ithalat arasında bulunan nedensellik iliskisi, ihracat ve ithalattan reel döviz kuruna doğru tek yönlü bir iliski biçiminde olmaktadır.
165-189

REFERENCES

References: 

Akbostancı,E.(2002), “ Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J
Curve”, ERC/METU 6. International Conference in Economics,
September,Ankara.
Akkaya, Sahin ve M.V. Pazarlıoğlu (1998), Ekonometri II, Erkam Yayınevi,
Đzmir.
Alse, J. Ve Bahmani-Oskooee, M.,(1995), “ Do Devaluations improve or
Worsen the Terms of Trade?”, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol.22,
No.6, 16-25.
Arize,A.C.(1997),” Conditional Exchange Rate Volatility and the Volume of
foreign Trade: Evidence from Seven Industrialized Countries.”
Southern Economic Journal,64:235-254.
Arize, C.A.,(1995)” The Effect of Exchange- Rate Volatility on U.S.
Exports: An Empiricial Investigation”, Southern Economic Journal,
Volume 62,Number 1, July 1995,34-43.
Arize, C.A.,(1994)”Cointegration Test of a Long-run Relation between the
Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance”, Internetional
Economic Journal, Vol.8, No:3,1-9.
Arize,A.C.,Malindretos,J.&Kasibhatla,K.M.(2003) Does Exchange-rate
volitility on export: The case of Australia and New Zealand. Journal of
Economics and Finance, 2282-3) Summer/Fall,pp.43-56.
Asseery ,A. And Peel, D.A. (1991) The Effects of Change rate volatility on
exports: an empirical investigation. Southern Economic Journal 62:34-
43.
Aristotelous,K.,(2001) “ Exchange-rate volatility, Exchange-rate regime,and
trade volume: Evidence from the UK-US export function (1989-1999),
Economic Letters 72, 87-89.
Aydın,M.F.,Çıplak,U.,Yücel,M.E., (2004), “ Export Supply and Import
Demand Models for Turkısh Economy”,The Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No.04/09.
Backus,D.,” (1998), “ The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and
Future Perspects”, Japan and The World Economy,10,409-420.
Bahmani-Oskoe,,Niroomand,F. (1998) “ Long_run Price Elasticities and The
Marshall-Lerner Condition Revisited”, Economic Letters, Vol.61.101-
109.
Baldemir, E. Ve Gökalp, F. (1999), “Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru ve Dıs Ticaret
Hadleri Đliskisinin Ekonometrik Analizi” IV. Ulusal Ekonometri ve
Đstatistik Sempozyumu Bildirileri,17-40.
Bhattacharya,R., (1997), “ The Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate:
Evidence from a VAR FOR The United States”, Thr Journal of
Economics,23,1, 59-71.
Boratav,K. Ve Yeldan,E.(2001), Financial Liberalization,Macroeconomic
(In) –Stability,and Patterns of Distribution.Working Paper,Bilkent
University.
Bügük.C.,Isık,M.,Dellal,Đ.,ve Allen,A. (2001),” The Impact of Exchange
Rate Variability on Agriculture Exports of Developing Countries: The
Case of Turkey.” Journal of International Food&Agribusiness
Marketng.13:83-105.
Clark,P.B.(1973),” Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, and the Level of
International Trade.”Western Economic Journal, 11:302-313.
Cushman,D.O. (1983), The Effects of Reel Exchange Rate Risk on
International Trade.”Journal of International Economics, 15:45-63.
Dellas,H., and Z. Zilberfarb(1993).” Reel Exchange Rate Volatility and
International Trade: A Re-examination of the Theory.” Southern
Economic Journal, 59: 641-647.
Demirel,B. Ve Erdem,C.,(2004) “ Döviz kurlarındaki dalgalanmaların
ihracata etkileri: Türkiye Örneği,Đktisat Đsletme ve Finans, Yıl.19,
,s.116-127.
Doğanlar,M. (2002), Estimating the impact of Exchange rate volatility on
export: evidence from Asian countries, Applied Economics Letters, 9:
859-863.
Doğanlar,M., Bal,H.,Özmen,M., (2004), “ Uluslar arası Ticaret ve
Türkiye’nin Đhracat Fonksiyonu”, Manas Üniversitesi S.B.E.
Dergisi,Sayı:7,83-109.
Dornbush, R.,(1976), Expectations and Exchange Rates Dynamics.” Journal
of Political Economy 84,101-192.
Erlat,G. Ve Erlat,H.,(1998).” Real Exchange Rates, the real Interest
Differential and the terms of Trade: THE Turkish Case”, Yapı Kredi
Ekonomik Review, Volume:9,Number:1,27-40.
Gotur,P. (1985), Effects of Exchange rate volatility on trade. IMF Staff
Papers,32, 475-512.
Gujarati, Damodar N. (1999), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev:Ü. Senesen ve G.G.
Senesen), Literatür Yayınları, 1.Baskı, Đstanbul
Gül, Ekrem ve Ekinci, Aykut(2006). “Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Döviz Kuru
Arasındaki Nedensellik Đliskisi:1984-2003”, Anadolu Üniversitesi
Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C:6, S:1, ss.91-105.
Gürbüz,H. VE Çekerol, K. (2001), “ Reel Döviz Kuru ile Dıs Ticaret Haddi
ve Bilesenleri Arasındaki Uzun Dönem Đliski”, Afyon Kocatepe
Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C.4,s.231-46.
Hooper, P. And Kohlhagen, S.W. (1978) “ The effect of Exchange rate
uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade.” Journal of
International Economics,8,483-511.
Hook,L.S., Boon,T.H., (2000), Reel Exchange rate volatility and Malaysian
export to its major trading partners, Working Paper 6, Universty Putra
Malaysia
In, F. ve Menon, J. (1996), “ The Long-run Relationship between the real
Exchange rate and terms of trade in OECD countries”,Applied
Economics, 28,1075-1080.
Kadılar,C. (2000), Uygulamalı Çok Değiskenli Zaman Serileri Analizi,
Bizim Büro Basımevi, Ankara.
Karaca, Orhan(2003), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Büyüme Đliskisi: Zaman Serisi
Analizi”, Doğus Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), 247-255
Kasman,A. Ve Kasman,S.,(2005), “ Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun Đhracat
Arzı Üzerine Etkisi”, Öneri, C.6,S.23, , s.198-203.
Kenen,P., and D.Rodrik (1986), “ Measuring and Analyzing the effect of
Short-Term Volalitiy on Real Exchange Rate.” Review of Economics
and Statistics, 311-315.
Koray, F. and W.D. Lastrapes (1989) ,” Reel Exchange Rate Volatility and
U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. “ The Review of Economics
and Statistics, 24:708-712.
Lin,C.A., (1997), “ The Trade Balance and the real Excahange Rate: The US
Evidence From 1973:3-1994:09”, Applied Economics Letters,4, 517-
520.
McKenzie,M.D., & Brooks, R.D. (1997) The impact of Exchange rate
volatility on German –U.S. trade flows. Journal of International
Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 7(1) April,73-87.
Menon,J.,(1994), “Exchange rates and Prices of Australian Manufactured
Exports”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archive,695-710.
Onafowora, O. (2003), “ Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Đn East Asia: Đs
There A J-Curve?”, Economics Bulletin, Vol.5,No:18,1-13.
Özbay, P. (1999), “ The effect of Exchange rate uncertainty on exports a
case study for Turkey.”Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası,
Tartısma Tebliğleri, Ankara.
Öztük,Đ., Acaravcı,A.,(2002-2003)” Döviz Kurundaki Değiskenliğin Türkiye
Đhracatı Üzerine Etkisi: Amprik Bir Çalısma”, Review of Social,
Economic and Business Studies, Vol.2,Fall 2002-2003,s.197-2006.
Rose, A.K., Yellen,J.L., (1989), “ Is there a J-Curve?”, Journal of Monetary
Economics,24, 53-68.
Rose,A.K., “ The Role of Exchange Rates in a Popular Model of
International Trade, Does The Marshall-Lerner Condition Hold?”,
Journal of International Economics,30, 301-316.
Saatçioğlu,C., Karaca,O.,(2004)” Döviz kuru Belirsizliğinin Đhracata Etkisi:
Türkiye Örneği”,Doğus Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(2),S.183-195.
Saygılı,M.,Sahinbeyoğlu,G.Özbay,P.,(1998) “ Competitiveness Indicators
and The Equilibrium Reel Rate Dynamics in Turkey.”, Central Bank
of The Republic of Turkey.
Siregar, Reza Y. ve Gulasekaran Rajaguru (2002),”Base Money and
Exchange Rate: Sources of Inflation in Indonesia during the Post-1997
Financial Crisis”, Adelaide University, centre for International
Economic Studies, CIES Discussion Paper 0221.
http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/papers/0221.pdf
Sivri, U., Usta,C.(2001) ,” Reel Döviz Kuru, Đhracat ve Đthalat Arasındaki
Đliski”, Uludağ Üniversitesi Đ.Đ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt.19, S.4,S.1-9.
Soto-Urbina,L., G. Pompelli and R.Roberts (1995), “ Source of Exchange
Rate Variability: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago.” Journal of
International Food and Agribusiness Marketing, 7: 53-63.
Spitaller,E.,(1980), “Short-Run Effects of Exchange rate Changes on Terms
of Trade and Trade Balance”, IMF Staff Papers,27,320-348.
Sukar, A.H., and Hassan, S. (2001)” US Exports And Time-Varying
Volatility of Real Exchange Rate.” Global Finance Journal, 12:109-
119.
Terzi,H.ve Zengin, A. (1999), “ Kur Politikasının Dıs Ticaret Dengesini
Sağlamada Etkinliği: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Ekonomik
Yaklasım,10,33(Yaz),48-65.
Sahinbeyoğlu,G. Ve Ulasan,B.,(1999), An Empricial Examination of the
Structural Stability of Export Function: The Case of Turkey., The
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey., Research
Department.,Discussion Paper,No.9907.
Simsek,M., Kadılar,C., (2004),” Türkiye’nin Đthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun
Sınır Testi Yaklasımı ile Esbütünleme Analizi:1970-2002”, Doğus
Üniversitesi Dergisi,Vol.5(1), 27-34.
Yamak, R., Korkmaz,A.(2005), Reel döviz kuru ve Dıs Ticaret Dengesi
Đliskisi, Đstanbul Üniversitesi Đktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve Đstatistik
Dergisi,Sayı:2,2005-11-29.
Yanıkkaya,H. (2001), “ The Influence of Real Exchange Rates on Turkish
Agricultural Exports.” Gazi Üniversitesi Đktisadi ve Đdari Bilimler
Fakültesi Dergisi,2:69-80.
Yeldan,Erinç,(2001),Küresellesme sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, Đletisim
Yayınları,Đstanbul
Yuan Y. And Awokuse T.O. (2003),”Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S.
Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data.” Selected Paper for
Annual Meetings of The American Agricultural Economics (AAEA)
Meeting in Montreal, Canada.
Wilson,P. Ve Tat,K.C.,(2001),” Exchange Rates and The Trade Balance :
The Case of Singapur 1970 to 1996”, Journal of Asian
Economics,12,47-63.
Zengin,H. Ve Terzi,H.,(1995),” Türkiye’de Kur Politikası, Đthalat, Đhracat ve
Dıs Ticaret Dengesi Đliskisinin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Gazi
Üniversitesi Đ.Đ.B.F., 11,1-2,247-266.
Zengin, A. “Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Dıs Ticaret Fiyatları (Türkiye
Ekonomisi Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular)”,
C.Ü.Đ.Đ.B.F.Dergisi,Cilt:2,Sayı:2,27-41.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com