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TÜRKİYE’DE BEŞERİ SERMAYE, İHRACAT VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

A Causality Analysis of Relationship Among Human Capital, Export and Economic Growth for Turkey

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Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, the causal relationship among human capital accumulation, export and economic growth was analyzed using data pertaining to Turkey’s real GDP, real export and higher education registration series over the period 1960-2004 by using cointegration and error correction methodology. The main findings of this analysis are that in Turkey on one hand while export growth and human capital accumulation support economic growth in the long run, on the other hand economic growth fosters human capital accumulation. These findings support the human capital based endogenous growth theory and the export led growth hypothesis.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, beşeri sermaye birikimi, ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel ilişki, eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modelleri yöntemleri ile Türkiye’nin 1960- 2004 dönemindeki yıllık reel GSYİH, reel ihracat ve yüksek öğrenime kayıt miktarı serileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu analizden elde edilen başlıca bulgular; Türkiye’de bir taraftan uzun dönemde ihracattaki artış ve beşeri sermaye birikimi, uzun dönemli büyümeyi desteklerken diğer taraftan da GSYİH’deki artışın beşeri sermaye birikimini beslediği şeklindedir. Bu bulgular, beşeri sermayeye dayalı içsel büyüme teorisini ve ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir.
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