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ERZURUM İÇİN KISA SÜRELİ YAĞIŞ ŞİDDETİ DENKLEMLERİNİN MODELLENMESİ

MODELLING OF SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (SDR) INTENSITY EQUATIONS FOR ERZURUM

Journal Name:

  • Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2007

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The scope of this study is to develop a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) equation for some return periods at Erzurum rainfall station. The maximum annual rainfall values for 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are statistically analyzed for the period 1956 - 2004 by using some statistical distributions such as the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), Gumbel, Normal, Two-parameter Lognormal, Three-parameter Lognormal, Gamma, Pearson type III and Log-Pearson type III distributions. %2 goodness-of-fit test was used to choose the best statistical distribution among all distributions. IDF equation constants and coefficients of correlation (R) for each emprical functions are calculated using nonlinear estimation method for each return periods (T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100 years). The most suitable IDF equation is observed that imax (t) = A/ (t + C )B, except for T=100 years, because of the highest coefficients of correlation.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Erzurum yağış istasyonunda bazı dönüş periyodları için bir yağış şiddeti-süre-tekerrür (IDF) denklemi geliştirmektir. 5, 10, 15, 30 ve 60 dakikalar için maksimum yıllık yağış değerleri Genelleştirilmiş Ekstrem Değerler (GEV), Gumbel, Normal, iki parametreli Lognormal, üç parametreli Lognormal, Gamma, Pearson tip III ve Log-Pearson tip III dağılımları gibi bazı istatistiksel dağılımlar kullanılarak 1956-2004 aralığı için istatistiksel olarak analiz edildi. Bütün dağılımlar arasından en iyi istatistiksel dağılımı seçmek için %2 uyum testi kullanıldı. Her amprik fonksiyon için IDF denklem sabitleri ve korelasyon katsayıları (R) bütün dönüş periyodları için (T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 ve 100 yıl) lineer olmayan tahmin metodu kullanılarak hesaplandı. En yüksek korelasyon katsayısından dolayı, T = 100 yıl hariç, en uygun IDF denkleminin imax (t) = A / (t + C )B olduğu gözlendi.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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