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Philips Eğrisinin Eşik Regresyon İle Tahmini: Türkiye Örneği

A Thresold Regression Estimation of Philips Curve: Turkey Case

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Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper, using the threshold regression model developed by Hansen (1996, 2000), we estimated an extended Phillips curve relationship with variables playing an important role in the formation of inflation. We also used Hamilton’s (2001) flexible nonlinear inference approach to test whether nonlinearity existed and if the threshold model was appropriate. According to our findings, the model in which the estimated threshold value for capacity utilization rate is equal to 75% is quite reasonable for modeling the Turkish Phillips curve. This result supports the idea that high and low capacity measures may have different impacts on inflation. Moreover, unlike other studies in Turkish Phillips Curve literature, it presents a stable nonlinear relationship between the real economic activity and inflation in Turkish economy.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, Hansen (1996, 2000) tarafından geliştirilen eşik regresyon modeli kullanılarak, enflasyonun oluşumunda önemli role sahip değişkenlerle genişletilmiş bir Phillips Eğrisi ilişkisi tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca, Hamilton (2001)’in esnek doğrusal olmayan çıkarım yaklaşımıyla doğrusal dışılığın varlığı ve eşik regresyon modelinin uygunluğu test edilmiştir. Bulgularımıza göre, Kapasite Kullanım Oranları değişkeni için %75’lik bir eşik değere sahip olan model Türkiye’deki Phillips eğrisi ilişkisi için oldukça uygundur. Bu sonuç, yüksek ve düşük Kapasite Kullanım Oranlarının enflasyon üzerinde farklı etkilere sahip olduğu yönündeki iddiaları desteklemektedir. Ayrıca, Phillips Eğrisi konusunda Türkiye ekonomisi için yapılan diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak, çalışmamız reel ekonomik aktivite ve enflasyon arasında istikrarlı bir doğrusal dışı ilişki sunmaktadır.
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