Siyasi İstikrarsizlik ve Ekonomik Performans: Türkiye Örneği

Makalenin İngilizce İsmi: 
Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey
Makale İçerik Bilgileri
Makale Dili: 
Türkçe
Anahtar Kelimeler: 
İktisadi Büyüme
siyasi istikrarsızlık
eşbütünleşme testi
Türkçe Özet: 

Bu çalışma, Johansen (1988) eşbütünleşme ve Hata Düzeltme
Modeli (HDM) testlerini kullanarak 1987-2007 yılları arasıda
Türkiye’de siyasi istikrarsızlık ve gayri safi yurt içi hasıla (GSYİH)
arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Eşbütünleşme analizi, siyasi
istikrarsızlık ve gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla (GSYİH) arasında uzun
dönemli bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak, Hata
Düzeltme Modeli (HDM) gayri safi yurt içi hâsıladan siyasi istikrarsızlığa
doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını
göstermektedir.

Key Words: 
Economic Growth
political instability
cointegration test.
İngilizce Özet: 

This study investigates the relationship between political instability
and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Turkey, covering
the period 1987-2007 using Johansen (1988) cointegration
and Error Correction Model (ECM) tests. The result of the
cointegration analysis indicates that there is a long-run relationship
between gross domestic product (GDP) and political
instability. Additionally, the Error Correction Model suggests
an uni-directional causal relationship from Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) to political instability.

Yazar Bilgileri
1. Yazar
Yazar Adı: 
Ünal ARSLAN
Yazar Ünvanı: 
Doktor
Yazar Üniversitesi: 
Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi
Yazar Fakültesi: 
İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi
Yazar Anabilim Dalı: 
İktisat Anabilim Dalı
Makale Künye Bilgisi
Makalenin Yayımlandığı Dergi: 
Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi
Makale Yayın Yılı: 
2011
Cilt/Sayı: 
11
Sayı: 
1
Sayfa Aralığı: 
73 -80
Referanslar: 

Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1995) “Income Distribution, Political
Stability and Investment”, European Economic Review,
40:1203-1220.
Alesina, A. ve Rodrik, D., (1994) “Distributive Politics and
Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (2):
465-490.
Alesina, A. ve Tabellini, G. (1990) “A Positive Theory of Fiscal
Deficits and Government Debt”, Review of Economic Studies,
(57): 403-414.
Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. ve Swagel, P. (1996) “Political
Stability and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth,
1(2): 189-211.
Asteriou, D., ve Price, S. (2001) “Political Instability and
Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish
Journal of Political Economy, 48 (4): 383-399.
Barro, R. (1997) The Determinants of Economic Growth; A
Cross Country Empirical Study, Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
Barro, R. J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of
Countries,”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2): 407-
444.
Barro, R. J. ve Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995) “Technological
Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth,” NBER Working
Paper, No. 5151.
Benabou, R. (1996) “Inequality and Growth”, NBER Working
Paper, 5658.
Benhabib, J. ve Rustichini, A. (1996) “Social Conflict and
Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1 (1): 125-142.
Berthélemy, J., Kauffmann, C., Renard, L. ve Wegner, L.
(2000) “Political Instability, Political Regimes and Economic
Performance in African Countries”, Draft Paper for African
Economic Outlook, Paris.
Bienen, H. S., Londregan, J. ve Van de Walle, N. (1993)
“Ethnicity, Leadership Succession, and Economic Development
in Africa.” Institute for Policy Reform, Washington, D.C.
Chen, B. ve Feng, Y. (1996) “Some Political Determinants of
Economic Growth: Theory and Empirical Implication”,
European Journal of Political Economy, 12: 607-27.
Collier, P. (1999) “On the Economic Consequences of Civil
War,” Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 51: 163-83.
Darby, J., Chol-Won, L., ve Muscatelli, A. V. (2004) “Political
uncertainty, public expenditure and growth,” European Journal
of Political Economy, 20(1):153-179.
De Haan, J. ve Siermann, C.L.J. (1995) “New Evidence on the
Relationship Between Democracy and Economics Growth”,
Public Choice, 86: 175-98.
Devereux, M. B. ve Wen, J. (1997) “Political Instability, Capital
Taxation and Growth”, European Economic Review, 42: 1635-
1651.
Easterly, W. ve Levine, R. (1997) “Africa’s Growth Tragedy:
Policies and Ethnic Divisions”, The Quarterly Journal of
Economics, 112(4): 1203-1250.
Eaton, J. ve Kortum, S. S. (1995) “Trade in Ideas: Patenting
and Productivity in the OECD”, NBER Working Papers, No.
5049.
Enders, W. (1995) Applied Econometric Time Series, New York,
John Wiley & Sons Inc,.
Ghate C., Vu Le, Q., ve. Zak, P. J (2003) “Optimal Fiscal Policy
in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability”, Review of
Development Economics, 7(4): 583-598.
Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relation by
Econometric and Cross-Sectional Method”, Econometrica 37:
424–438.
Gujarati, D. N. (1999) Temel Ekonometri, (çev: Ümit Şenses ve
Gülay Günlük Şenesen), Literatür Yayıncılık.
Hall, R. E. ve Charles, I. J. (1999) “Why Do Some Countries
Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?”,
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114( 1): 83-116.
Isham, J., Kaufmann, D. ve Pritchett, L. (1997) “Civil Liberties,
Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects.”
The World Bank Economic Review, 11( 2): 219–42.
Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration
Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12( 2-3):
231–54.
Johansen, S. ve Katarina, J. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood
KAYNAKLAR
80
Siyasi İstikrarsizlik ve Ekonomik Performans: Türkiye Örneği
Estimation and Inference on Cointegration– with Applications
to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and
Statistics, 52/ 2: 169-210.
Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009) “On the Measurement of Political
Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth”, European
Journal of Political Economy, 25: 15-29.
Kibritçioğlu, A. ve Dibooğlu, S. (2001) “Long-Run Economic
Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach”, Knowledge,
Technology, &Policy, 13(4): 59-70.
Kibritçioğlu, A. (1998) “İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve
Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri”. AÜ
Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53( 1-4): 207-230.
Klomp, J. ve Jakob, D.H. (2009) Political Institutions and
Economic Volatility, European Journal of Political Economy,
25: 311-326.
Knack, S. ve Keefer, P.(1995) “Institutions and Economic
Performance: Gross-Country Test Using Alternative
Institutional Measures”, Economics and Politics, 7(3): 207-27.
Leahy J. V. ve Whited T. M. (1996) “The Effect of Uncertainity
on Investment Some Stylized Facts”, Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking, 28(1): 64-83.
Murphy, K., Sleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. (1991), “The Allocation
of Talent:Implications for Growth, Quarterly Journal of
Economics, 106: 503-530.
Oliva, M. ve Rivera-Batiz, L. A. (2002) “Political Institutions,
Capital Flows, and Developing Country Growth: An
Empirical Investigation”, Review of Development Economics,
6: 248-62.
Olson , M. (1982) “The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic
Growth, Stagflation and Social Rigidities”, New Hawen, Yale
University Pres.
Parente, S.L. ve Prescott, E. C. (1994) “ Barriers to Technology
Adoption and Development”, Journal of Political Economy,
102(2): 258-321.
Perotti, R. (1996) “Growth, Income, Distribution and
Democracy: What the Data Say?”, Journal of Economic
Growth, 1(2): 149-187.
Perrson, T. ve Svensson, L. (1989) “Why Stubborn Conservatives
Run Deficits: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85. 325-45.
Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1994) “Is Inequality Harmful for
Growth?”,American Economic Review, 84(3): 600–621.
Sokoloff, K. L. ve Engerman, S. L. (2000) “History Lessons:
Institutions, Factors Endowment, and Paths of Development
in the New World”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives,
14(3): 217-232.
Swensson, J. (1998) “Investment, Properity Rights and Political
Instability: Theory and Evidence, European Economic Review,
42: 1317-1341.
Tezel, Y. S, (2003) İktisadi Büyüme, Ankara, İmaj Yayınevi.

Türkiye’nin ilk İşletme Fakültesi olan İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi bir ilke daha imza atmaya hazırlanıyor. Arastirmax.com "1. Liselerarası İşletme ve Ekonomi Proje Yarışması"nın sponsorlarından biri olmaktan gurur duymakta.