TÜRKİYE’DE REEL DÖVİZ KURUNU BELİRLEYEN UZUN DÖNEMLİ ETKENLER

Makalenin İngilizce İsmi: 
LONG-RUN DETERMINANTS OF THE TURKISH REAL EXCHANGE RATE
Makale İçerik Bilgileri
Makale Dili: 
Türkçe
Anahtar Kelimeler: 
reel döviz kuru
kısıtsız hata düzeltme modeli
eşbütünleşme analizi
ARDL
sınır testi
kritik sınır değerleri.
Türkçe Özet: 

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki reel döviz kurunu belirleyen uzun dönemli temel
etkenleri analiz etmektedir. Modeldeki bağımsız değişkenler I(0) and I(1) sürecinin
bir karışımı olduğu için, modelin tahmininde kullanılan ekonometri tekniğinin
seçimi önemlidir. Bu nedenle reel döviz kurunun determinantlarının tahmininde
eşbütünleşme analizine ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bulgular; net
yabancı sermaye girişi, Türkiye ile önemli dış ticaret ortaklarının gelirlerinin
ağırlıklı ortalaması arasındaki fark, M2 para arzı, dış ticaret dengesi ve ticaret
haddinin uzun dönemde reel döviz kurunu etkilediğini ortaya koymuştur.

Key Words: 
real exchange rate
unresricted error correction model
cointegration analysis
ARDL
bounds testing
critical value bounds.
İngilizce Özet: 

This study analysis the long-run main determinants of the real exchange rate in
Turkey. The choice of econometric technique used to estimate the model was
important because the regressors in the model appeared to be a mixture of I(0) and
I(1) processes. Thus ARDL bounds testing approaches to cointegration analysis in
estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates. The findings are
that net foreign assets, income differantial between Turkey and a weighted average
of major trading patterns, M2 money supply, trade balance and terms of trade
influence the real exchange rate in Turkey.

Yazar Bilgileri
1. Yazar
Yazar Adı: 
Muammer Şimşek
Yazar Ünvanı: 
Öğretim Görevlisi
Yazar Üniversitesi: 
Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi
Yazar Fakültesi: 
Meslek Yüksekokulu
Yazar E-posta: 
Makale Künye Bilgisi
Makalenin Yayımlandığı Dergi: 
Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi
Makale Yayın Yılı: 
2004
Cilt/Sayı: 
5
Sayı: 
2
Sayfa Aralığı: 
112-136
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